[THS] !!!!! Is the BP Gusher Unstoppable?

[The Harder Stuff in news and commentary]

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article25755.htm

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Is the BP Gusher Unstoppable?

By Julia Whitty

June 17, 2010 "Mother Jones" --  Sharon Astyk at ScienceBlogs points the way to a
seriously scary comment thread at The Oil Drum, a sounding board for, among
others, many petroleum geologists and oil professionals. The comment in question is
from a seemingly very knowledgable "dougr." Some of it follows verbatim below. I've
highlighted the parts that frightened me the most and left me wondering: Is this why
Obama's praying?

You can read the comment in its entirety here, complete with useful links, as well as
all the comments (some of which dissent from dougr's claims) made in response.
Sharon notes, to the inevitable question of why pass along an anonymous comment:
"This one passes my smell test, which is usually pretty good - that doesn't mean I
claim commenter Doug R is right - it means I think his information is interesting
enough to be worth exposing to a wider audience for clarification or correction." As
the Oil Drum staff explains to it's own readers regarding this post: "Were the US
government and BP more forthcoming with information and details, the situation
would not be giving rise to so much speculation about what is actually going on in
the Gulf. This should be run more like Mission Control at NASA than an exclusive
country club function--it is a public matter--transparency, now!" Amen. Meanwhile,
judge for yourself:

    "All the actions and few tid bits of information all lead to one inescapable
conclusion. The well pipes below the sea floor are broken and leaking. Now you have
some real data of how BP's actions are evidence of that, as well as some murky
statement from "BP officials" confirming the same.

    "To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly knowledgeable, [the
failure of Top Kill] was a major confirmation of what many feared. That the system
below the sea floor has serious failures of varying magnitude in the complicated
chain, and it is breaking down and it will continue to.

    "What does this mean?

    "It means they will never cap the gusher after the wellhead. They cannot...the
more they try and restrict the oil gushing out the bop?...the more it will transfer to
the leaks below. Just like a leaky garden hose with a nozzle on it. When you open up
the nozzle?...it doesn't leak so bad, you close the nozzle?...it leaks real bad, same
dynamics. It is why they sawed the riser off...or tried to anyway...but they clipped it
off, to relieve pressure on the leaks "down hole". I'm sure there was a bit of panic
time after they crimp/pinched off the large riser pipe and the Diamond wire saw got
stuck and failed...because that crimp diverted pressure and flow to the rupture down
below.

    "Contrary to what most of us would think as logical to stop the oil mess, actually
opening up the gushing well and making it gush more became direction BP took after
confirming that there was a leak. In fact if you note their actions, that should become
clear. They have shifted from stopping or restricting the gusher to opening it up and
catching it. This only makes sense if they want to relieve pressure at the leak hidden
down below the seabed.....and that sort of leak is one of the most dangerous and
potentially damaging kind of leak there could be. It is also inaccessible which
compounds our problems. There is no way to stop that leak from above, all they can
do is relieve the pressure on it and the only way to do that right now is to open up
the nozzle above and gush more oil into the gulf and hopefully catch it, which they
have done, they just neglected to tell us why, gee thanks.

    "A down hole leak is dangerous and damaging for several reasons. There will be
erosion throughout the entire beat up, beat on and beat down remainder of the
"system" including that inaccessible leak. The same erosion I spoke about in the first
post is still present and has never stopped, cannot be stopped, is impossible to stop
and will always be present in and acting on anything that is left which has crude oil
"Product" rushing through it. There are abrasives still present, swirling flow will
create hot spots of wear and this erosion is relentless and will always be present until
eventually it wears away enough material to break it's way out. It will slowly eat the
bop away especially at the now pinched off riser head and it will flow more and
more. Perhaps BP can outrun or keep up with that out flow with various suckage
methods for a period of time, but eventually the well will win that race, just how long
that race will be?...no one really knows....However now?...there are other problems
that a down hole leak will and must produce that will compound this already bad
situation.

    "This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around
the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out
Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning to the results of
the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the undermining being caused by the
leaking well bore.

    "The first layer of the sea floor in the gulf is mostly lose material of sand and silt. It
doesn't hold up anything and isn't meant to, what holds the entire subsea system of
the Bop in place is the well itself... The well's piping in comparison is actually very
much smaller than the Blow Out Preventer and strong as it may be, it relies on some
support from the seabed to function and not literally fall over...and it is now showing
signs of doing just that....falling over...

    "What is likely to happen now?

    "Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it
gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is
accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out
preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by
the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head
connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip
over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will
run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting
disaster that much sooner.

    "Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of
the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is
being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the
BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up
around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head
connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after
that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor
sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just
are not telling us.

    "All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to
the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think
of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very
long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst
things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad
as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a
day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on
earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more
and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to
the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less
likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it
all.

    "It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing
this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing
system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.

    "We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates.
The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will
not get better, it can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will
still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of
every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and
set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.

    "Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only
get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on
collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to
erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be
stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the
well."

Julia Whitty is the Environmental Correspondent for Mother Jones. Her latest book
DEEP BLUE HOME : An Intimate Ecology of Our Wild Ocean will be out in July. For
more of her stories, click here.