[THS] Leak spewing 5 to 10 times the oil once estimated

[The Harder Stuff in news and commentary]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20100514/ts_ynews/ynews_ts2064/print;_ylt=Akh7mmPLrpC9mj.WjqHznbQEq594;_ylu=X3oDMTBvajZzaTFyBHBvcwMxNQRzZWMDdG9wBHNsawNwcmludA--

Leak spewing 5 to 10 times the oil once estimated
Fri May 14, 12:13 pm ET

Earlier in the week we noted that some experts believed that the amount of oil
spewing out of the busted BP well in the Gulf of Mexico was far greater than early
estimates indicated.

Now, with video evidence belatedly supplied by BP, consensus is shifting to the view
that the leak is worse — much, much worse — than we've been led to believe. Two
new reports detail a grim picture of the gulf.

In Friday's New York Times, Justin Gillis writes that the previous estimate of 5,000
barrels a day was "hastily produced by government scientists in Seattle" who
employed a" method that is specifically not recommended for major oil spills." Gillis
cites the findings of Ian MacDonald, a Florida State University oceanography
professor specializing in oil seeps, who estimates that the spill could "easily be four or
five times" previous estimates.

But wait — it gets worse.

Extrapolating from the 30-second snatch of underwater video that BP made available,
NPR science correspondent Richard Harris reported that analysts think the well is
spewing 10 times the amount of oil previously estimated, perhaps even 70,000
barrels per day.

As Harris put it, that's the equivalent of one Exxon Valdez tanker — the previous
high-water mark for American oil spills — every four days.

If this news weren't bad enough, National Geographic's Christine Dell'Amore reported
that the leak "could gush for years," until the gulf oil reservoir runs dry. [article below]

Matthew
Simmons, a longtime oil industry consultant told  Dell'Amore  that "we don't have any
idea how to stop this" and labeled current efforts to plug the leaks a "joke."

In response to significantly worse assessments of the spill, Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.),
who leads the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee on energy and the
environment, announced that he'll investigate the methods BP and the government
used to come up with the early, more conservative estimates.

— Brett Michael Dykes is a national affairs writer for Yahoo! News.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/05/100513-science-environment-gulf-oil-spill-cap-leak/


Gulf Oil Leaks Could Gush for Years
"We don't have any idea how to stop this," expert says.

Oil is seen in the water off the coast of Louisiana.
Seen up close, an iridescent sheen of oil swirls on Gulf of Mexico waters Tuesday.
Photograph by Gerald Herbert, AP

Christine Dell'Amore
National Geographic News
Published May 13, 2010

If efforts fail to cap the leaking Deepwater Horizon wellhead in the Gulf of Mexico
(map), oil could gush for years—poisoning coastal habitats for decades, experts say.

(See satellite pictures of the Gulf oil spill's evolution.)
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/05/photogalleries/100504-gulf-of-mexico-oil-spill-environment-nation-pictures/

Last week the joint federal-industry task force charged with managing the spill tried
unsuccessfully to lower a 93-ton containment dome (pictures) over one of three
ruptures in the rig's downed pipe.

Crystals of methane hydrates in the freezing depths clogged an opening on the box,
preventing it from funneling the spouting oil up to a waiting ship.

Watch video of the failed attempt to cap the leaking pipe.


Yesterday a smaller dome was laid on the seafloor near the faulty well, and officials
will attempt to install the structure later this week.

But such recovery operations have never been done before in the extreme deep-sea
environment around the wellhead, noted Matthew Simmons, retired chair of the
energy-industry investment banking firm Simmons & Company International.

For instance, at the depth of the gushing wellhead—5,000 feet (about 1,500 meters)
—containment technologies have to withstand pressures of up to 40,000 pounds per
square inch (about 28,100 kilograms per square meter), he said.

Also, slant drilling—a technique used to relieve pressure near the leak—is difficult at
these depths, because the relief well has to tap into the original pipe, a tiny target at
about 7 inches (18 centimeters) wide, Simmons noted.

"We don't have any idea how to stop this," Simmons said of the Gulf leak. Some of
the proposed strategies—such as temporarily plugging the leaking pipe with a jet of
golf balls and other material—are a "joke," he added.

"We really are in unprecedented waters."

Gulf Oil Reservoir Bleeding Dry

If the oil can't be stopped, the underground reservoir may continue bleeding until it's
dry, Simmons suggested.

The most recent estimates are that the leaking wellhead has been spewing 5,000
barrels (210,000 gallons, or 795,000 liters) of oil a day.

And the oil is still flowing robustly, which suggests that the reserve "would take years
to deplete," said David Rensink, incoming president of the American Association of
Petroleum Geologists.

"You're talking about a reservoir that could have tens of millions of barrels in it."

At that rate, it's possible the Gulf oil spill's damage to the environment will have
lingering effects akin to those of the largest oil spill in history, which happened in
Saudi Arabia in 1991, said Miles Hayes, co-founder of the science-and-technology
consulting firm Research Planning, Inc., based in South Carolina.

During the Gulf War, the Iraqi military intentionally spilled up to 336 million gallons
(about 1.3 billion liters) of oil into the Persian Gulf (map) to slow U.S. troop advances,
according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Hayes was part of a team that later studied the environmental impacts of the spill,
which impacted about 500 miles (800 kilometers) of Saudi Arabian coastline.

The scientists discovered a "tremendous" amount of oiled sediment remained on the
Saudi coast 12 years after the spill—about 3 million cubic feet (856,000 cubic meters).
(See "Exxon Valdez Anniversary: 20 Years Later, Oil Remains.")

Oil Spills Create Toxic Marshes

Perhaps most sobering for the marsh-covered U.S. Gulf Coast, the 2003 report found
that the Saudi oil spill was most toxic to the region's marshes and mud flats.

Up to 89 percent of the Saudi marshes and 71 percent of the mud flats had not
bounced back after 12 years, the team discovered. (See pictures of freshwater plants
and animals.)

"It was amazing to stand there and look across what used to be a salt marsh and it
was all dead—not even a live crab," Hayes said.

Saudi and U.S. Gulf Coast marshes aren't exactly the same—Saudi marshes sit in
saltier waters, and the Middle Eastern climate is more arid, for example. "But to some
extent they serve the same ecological function, which is extremely important," he
said.

As the nurseries for much of the sea life in the Gulf of Mexico, coastal marshes are
vital to the ecosystem and the U.S. seafood industry.

It's also much harder to remove oil from coastal marshes, since some management
techniques—such as controlled burns—are more challenging in those environments,
said Texas Tech University ecotoxicologist Ron Kendall.

"Once it gets in there, we're not getting it out," he said. (See pictures of ten animals
threatened by the Gulf oil spill.)

Gulf Coast Should "Plan for the Worst"

Depth isn't the only factor that can stymie attempts to plug an oil leak.

The 1979 Ixtoc oil spill, also in the Gulf of Mexico, took nine months to cap. During
that time the well spewed 140 million gallons (530 million liters) of oil—and the Ixtoc
well was only about 160 feet (49 meters) deep, noted retired energy investment
banker Simmons.

Efforts to contain the Ixtoc leak were complicated by poor visibility in the water and
debris from the wrecked rig on the seafloor.

Also, the high pressure of oil in the well ruptured valves in the blowout preventer, a
device designed to automatically cap an out-of-control-well. Recovery workers had to
drill relief wells nearby before divers could cap the leak.

(See "Rig Explosion Shows Risks in Key Oil Frontier.")

In general, Simmons added, officials scrambling to cap the Deepwater Horizon well
should be working just as hard to protect the shorelines in what could become a
protracted event.

"We have to hope for the best," he said, "but plan for the worst."