[THS] Financial Crisis Inquiry: Deriving the Truth

[Peter Webster]

http://www.city-journal.org/2010/eon0114ng.html

Nicole Gelinas
Deriving the Truth
Brooksley Born wants the public—and Wall Street—to understand unregulated
derivatives’ role in the crisis.
14 January 2010

At yesterday’s Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission hearings, Brooksley Born, one of
the 10 commissioners on the Congressional panel, didn’t use her time taking cheap
shots. Born, who ran the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under
President Clinton, asked modest questions of Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blankfein.
The details that she tried to uncover are the financial crisis, distilled.

Born confined her questioning to inadequately regulated, or “over the counter,”
derivatives. It’s easy to see derivatives as peripheral to the “mortgage crisis,” but they
were actually central to it. Derivatives are financial instruments that get their value
from other securities or markets. When derivatives are properly regulated, traders
must put a pre-determined percentage of cash behind their bets, right from the
outset. A central clearinghouse holds that cash, along with cash from other investors.
If one financial firm can’t pay its obligations, the clearinghouse can make good on
the bankrupt firm’s promises. Risk-taking is robust within a controlled environment.

But over the past two decades, the financial industry created instruments that
evaded these rules. Through unregulated credit derivatives, the insurer AIG made
nearly half a trillion dollars’ worth of promises related to the value of mortgage-based
and other debt securities. AIG and its trading partners, including Goldman Sachs,
signed agreements that called for the insurer to make large, immediate cash
payments that depended on sudden, unpredictable market moves—but AIG didn’t
set cash aside for this purpose in advance.

When markets moved the wrong way, AIG couldn’t make good on the payments
Goldman and others demanded. And because the contracts didn’t trade on central
clearinghouses, nobody knew where the risk lay—and which other financial firms
AIG’s default would bankrupt. These unknowns set off mass panic until the Fed and
the Treasury announced that they would stand behind AIG’s promises, including
those it made to Goldman Sachs.

Yesterday, Born honed in on unregulated derivatives’ role in precipitating the $182
billion AIG bailout, still the object of public wrath. Earlier that morning, Blankfein had
testified that requiring derivatives to trade on central clearinghouses, with enforced
cash-down requirements, would “do more to . . . reduce systemic risk” in the
derivatives markets “than perhaps any specific rule.” Born asked Blankfein to explain
unregulated derivatives’ broader role in the financial crisis—in effect, to explain why
fixing this problem was so important, not just for derivatives but for the economy as a
whole.

Blankfein then took refuge in generalities and absurdities. “Aspects of the over-the-
counter derivatives market were a very, very big concern and a big worry,” he said:
the generality. And then the absurdity: “My belief is that the derivatives market
functioned actually pretty well under the circumstances. . . . We didn’t specifically
have a derivatives crisis.” Blankfein’s evidence was that after Lehman Brothers,
Washington Mutual, and a few other firms defaulted in September 2008, the holders
of credit derivatives related to those banks’ failure managed to pay out on their
obligations.

But Blankfein neglects a key point. Markets did this settling up after the government
realized what a colossal disaster Lehman’s bankruptcy meant for the global economy.
When Lehman made clear that it would file for insolvency on September 14, lenders
to the world’s financial system stampeded for the exits. They did so partly because
they were terrified that Lehman—and the then-flailing AIG—would owe a then-untold
amount on derivatives markets and that payment wasn’t going to happen. They
weren’t afraid just because Lehman had gone bankrupt; they were worried about
who else would go bankrupt. The government muted the panic and saved the shell
of the financial system only by pledging not to let it happen again. To prove it, the
feds saved AIG the next day.

Born pushed Blankfein again to make the connections. “Do you think [with] the
failure or near-failure of AIG, . . . do you think that having [central] clearing [of
derivatives] would have . . . reduced the risks inherent in AIG’s position?” she asked.

Blankfein wouldn’t bite. “I believe that it may have helped a bit,” he allowed,
explaining that a clearinghouse could have wrung cash payments out of AIG, which
was “slow” in making them. But, he concluded, “AIG was bent on taking a lot of
credit risk. . . . It was a failure of risk management of colossal proportion, and there
were derivatives in there.” Without unregulated derivatives, the Goldman chief said,
AIG “could have substituted other vehicles.” Blankfein failed to seize the opportunity
to make a vital distinction: under a proper system of regulation, a bankrupt AIG
would not have threatened the financial system.

Yesterday, a witness in the hearings’ afternoon session, J. Kyle Bass of an
independent investment firm, Hayman Advisors, said what Blankfein should have
said. “AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman would not have been able to take on as much
leverage as they did, had they been required to post initial [cash] collateral on day
one . . . [I]n AIG’s case, they did not have to post collateral. . . . The so-called ‘initial’
margin was, and still is, only charged to counterparties that are deemed to be ‘of
lesser credit quality.’” (AIG enjoyed near-perfect credit, until the firm used it to help
bankrupt the financial system.)

Bass concisely offered solutions. Regulators should require derivatives
participants—and presumably, participants in markets that haven’t been invented
yet—to post “homogenous minimum collateral requirements” at the outset of their
trades through a central clearinghouse “based upon a formulaic determination of
risk. . . . This would prevent . . . an AIG-type scenario where hundreds of billions of
dollars in risk is assumed with no cost.”

Note two of Bass’s words in particular. “Initial” is important. AIG’S trading partners
did demand cash—but only after it became apparent that the securities against
which AIG had made its promises were deteriorating. By then, it was too late.
“Homogenous” requirements would protect the economy from the inability of the
financial industry and the government to predict what’s risky in advance. If AIG had
to put 10 percent down on its promises from the beginning, we would not have seen
the panic that resulted from its fall. Market participants would have known where the
risk lay and who was responsible for losses (the clearinghouse).

This lesson isn’t new. Born tried to get Congress to understand it more than a decade
ago. After the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund teetered in 1998,
precipitating a government-led bailout of its lenders, she recognized the significance
of what had happened. She concluded—correctly—that it was unregulated
derivatives that had allowed Long-Term Capital Management to spin just $2.3 billion
in investor capital into $1.25 trillion in potential liabilities without anyone noticing.

Just like AIG years later, Long-Term Capital Management and its lenders—the world’s
biggest banks—avoided the rules that were supposed to ensure that bad financial
bets could not imperil the economy. When Long-Term bet wrong, markets panicked.
The world’s investors knew that the hedge fund couldn’t make good on its derivatives
promises. Even worse was what investors didn’t know: which financial firms the
hedge fund’s default might cripple. The New York Fed determined that markets
couldn’t withstand the hedge fund’s bankruptcy. It forced banks to prop it up and
then wind it down over time.

In the wake of this near-disaster, Born warned Congress that derivatives markets
needed old-fashioned regulation. She told the House Financial Services Committee in
1998 that these markets posed “unknown risks to the U.S. economy and to financial
stability around the world” because of their “lack of transparency” as well as
“unlimited borrowing . . . like the unlimited borrowing on securities that contributed
to the Great Depression.” But Washington and Wall Street saw the bailout as a
success that proved they could handle these markets on a discretionary basis. So
Congress, counseled by then-Fed chief Alan Greenspan, passed a law forbidding
such regulation. A decade later, unregulated derivatives overwhelmed Wall Street’s
ability to bail itself out.

If the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission can get the American public to grasp just
one thing, it should be that properly applying old rules to new financial instruments
goes a long way toward solving the “too big to fail” problem that infects our economy
and is at the root of public anxiety. AIG could not fail in 2008, because if it had, its
unregulated derivatives would have blown up the financial system from the inside.
The FCIC needs Congress, which has offered up a loophole-ridden derivatives fix, to
get this, too. Otherwise, Wall Street will one day take on such mammoth liabilities
that it overwhelms even Washington’s ability to bail it out.

Nicole Gelinas, a City Journal contributing editor and the Searle Freedom Trust Fellow
at the Manhattan Institute, is a Chartered Financial Analyst and the author of After
the Fall: Saving Capitalism from Wall Street and Washington.